Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 6.671308e-05 0.000080 0.000093 0.000110 0.000127 0.000147 0.000169
2025-03-23 5.042008e-05 0.000067 0.000087 0.000111 0.000139 0.000171 0.000209
2025-03-30 4.073132e-05 0.000059 0.000081 0.000109 0.000144 0.000185 0.000236
2025-04-06 3.238524e-05 0.000051 0.000075 0.000107 0.000147 0.000196 0.000259
2025-04-13 2.811456e-05 0.000047 0.000073 0.000109 0.000156 0.000213 0.000288
2025-04-20 2.237024e-05 0.000041 0.000067 0.000105 0.000156 0.000219 0.000304
2025-04-27 1.884150e-05 0.000037 0.000064 0.000104 0.000160 0.000230 0.000326
2025-05-04 1.596091e-05 0.000034 0.000062 0.000104 0.000164 0.000241 0.000347
2025-05-11 1.443021e-05 0.000033 0.000062 0.000107 0.000172 0.000259 0.000378
2025-05-18 1.259348e-05 0.000031 0.000060 0.000108 0.000178 0.000272 0.000402
2025-05-25 1.009643e-05 0.000027 0.000056 0.000104 0.000176 0.000275 0.000414
2025-06-01 8.337850e-06 0.000024 0.000053 0.000102 0.000178 0.000282 0.000430
2025-06-08 6.872870e-06 0.000022 0.000051 0.000102 0.000181 0.000293 0.000454
2025-06-15 5.811082e-06 0.000021 0.000050 0.000103 0.000187 0.000307 0.000482
2025-06-22 4.692448e-06 0.000019 0.000048 0.000102 0.000190 0.000317 0.000504
2025-06-29 3.617842e-06 0.000016 0.000045 0.000099 0.000190 0.000323 0.000521
2025-07-06 3.141629e-06 0.000016 0.000045 0.000102 0.000198 0.000340 0.000553
2025-07-13 2.276763e-06 0.000013 0.000041 0.000098 0.000195 0.000342 0.000564
2025-07-20 1.796320e-06 0.000012 0.000039 0.000097 0.000198 0.000352 0.000586
2025-07-27 1.413125e-06 0.000011 0.000038 0.000097 0.000201 0.000362 0.000609
2025-08-03 1.249604e-06 0.000011 0.000039 0.000100 0.000210 0.000381 0.000645
2025-08-10 1.017659e-06 0.000010 0.000038 0.000101 0.000215 0.000394 0.000673
2025-08-17 6.819474e-07 0.000009 0.000035 0.000097 0.000213 0.000396 0.000684